If immunisation is too low, dropping temperatures in fall 2021 may lead to epidemic resurgence – as in 1918, 1957 and 2020

Kaspar Staub

doi:10.4414/SMW.2021.w30014

Viewpoint

Vol. 151 No. 3334 (2021)

If immunisation is too low, dropping temperatures in fall 2021 may lead to epidemic resurgence – as in 1918, 1957 and 2020

Kaspar Staub

Cite this as:: Swiss Med Wkly. 2021;151:w30014
Published: 18.08.2021

References

Morens DM, Taubenberger JK, Fauci AS. A Centenary Tale of Two Pandemics: The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19, Part I [Internet]. Am J Public Health. 2021 Jun;111(6):1086–94. Available from: https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306310 https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306310
Morens DM, Daszak P, Taubenberger JK. Escaping Pandora’s Box - Another Novel Coronavirus [Internet]. N Engl J Med. 2020 Apr;382(14):1293–5. [cited 2020 May 7] Available from: http://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMp2002106 https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp2002106
Giles-Vernick T. Influenza and public health: learning from past pandemics. London: Earthscan; 2010.
Staub K, Rühli F, Floris J. The “Pandemic Gap” in Switzerland across the 20th century, and the necessity of increased science communication of past pandemic experiences. Swiss Med Wkly. 2020. Available from: https://smw.ch/op-eds/post/the-pandemic-gap
Staub K, Jüni P, Urner M, Matthes KL, Leuch C, Gemperle G, et al. Public Health Interventions, Epidemic Growth, and Regional Variation of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Outbreak in a Swiss Canton and Its Greater Regions [Internet]. Ann Intern Med. 2021 Apr;174(4):533–9. Available from: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6231 https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-6231
Mooney G. The Dangers of Ignoring History Lessons During a Pandemic [Internet]. Ann Intern Med. 2021 Apr;174(4):556–7. Available from: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-0449 https://doi.org/10.7326/M21-0449
Schweiz Bundesamt für Gesundheitswesen. Bulletin des Eidgenössischen Gesundheitsamtes, 1920-1979. Bern: Hallwag;
Vuilleumier C, Kaiser L. Les pandémies à travers les âges. Le cas suisse. Lausanne; 2020.
Greenhalgh T, Jimenez JL, Prather KA, Tufekci Z, Fisman D, Schooley R. Ten scientific reasons in support of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 [Internet]. Lancet. 2021 May;397(10285):1603–5. Available from: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140673621008692 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00869-2
Pica N, Bouvier NM. Ambient temperature and respiratory virus infection [Internet]. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2014 Mar;33(3):311–3. Available from: https://journals.lww.com/00006454-201403000-00024 https://doi.org/10.1097/INF.0000000000000235
Ansart S, Pelat C, Boelle PY, Carrat F, Flahault A, Valleron AJ. Mortality burden of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Europe. Influenza Other Respi Viruses [Internet]. 2009 May;3(3):99–106. Available from: http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2009.00080.x
Bogaert K. Cross protection between the first and second waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic among soldiers of the Canadian Expeditionary Force (CEF) in Ontario [Internet]. Vaccine. 2015 Dec;33(51):7232–8. [cited 2020 Apr 16] Available from: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0264410X15015765 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.10.120
Patrono LV, Vrancken B, Budt M, Düx A, Lequime S, Boral S, et al. Archival influenza virus genomes from Europe reveal genomic and phenotypic variability during the 1918 pandemic. bioRxiv [Internet]. 2021 Jan 1;2021.05.14.444134. Available from: http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2021/05/14/2021.05.14.444134.abstract
Weinberger DM, Krause TG, Mølbak K, Cliff A, Briem H, Viboud C, et al. Influenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe [Internet]. Am J Epidemiol. 2012 Oct;176(7):649–55. Available from: https://academic.oup.com/aje/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/aje/kws140 https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws140
Schmid F. Die Influenza in Der Schweiz in den Jahren 1889-1894. Francke, editor. Bern; 1895.
Paccaud MF, Poncioni B. [1957 Influenza pandemic & other viral respiratory diseases in Geneva, Switzerland]. Bull World Health Organ. 1959;20(2-3):498–504. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/13651930
Sahli H. Ueber die Grippe : Vortrag gehalten am 15. März 1919 in der bernischen naturforschenden Gesellschaft. Bern: Druck und Verlag von K.J. Wyss; 1919.

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If immunisation is too low, dropping temperatures in fall 2021 may lead to epidemic resurgence – as in 1918, 1957 and 2020. Swiss Med Wkly [Internet]. 2021 Aug. 18 [cited 2025 Oct. 14];151(3334):w30014. Available from: https://www.smw.ch/index.php/smw/article/view/3052

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DOI:: https://doi.org/10.4414/SMW.2021.w30014

[1] Morens DM, Taubenberger JK, Fauci AS. A Centenary Tale of Two Pandemics: The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19, Part I [Internet]. Am J Public Health. 2021 Jun;111(6):1086–94. Available from: https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306310 https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306310

[2] Morens DM, Daszak P, Taubenberger JK. Escaping Pandora’s Box - Another Novel Coronavirus [Internet]. N Engl J Med. 2020 Apr;382(14):1293–5. [cited 2020 May 7] Available from: http://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMp2002106 https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMp2002106

[3] Giles-Vernick T. Influenza and public health: learning from past pandemics. London: Earthscan; 2010.

[4] Staub K, Rühli F, Floris J. The “Pandemic Gap” in Switzerland across the 20th century, and the necessity of increased science communication of past pandemic experiences. Swiss Med Wkly. 2020. Available from: https://smw.ch/op-eds/post/the-pandemic-gap

[5] Staub K, Jüni P, Urner M, Matthes KL, Leuch C, Gemperle G, et al. Public Health Interventions, Epidemic Growth, and Regional Variation of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Outbreak in a Swiss Canton and Its Greater Regions [Internet]. Ann Intern Med. 2021 Apr;174(4):533–9. Available from: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-6231 https://doi.org/10.7326/M20-6231

[6] Mooney G. The Dangers of Ignoring History Lessons During a Pandemic [Internet]. Ann Intern Med. 2021 Apr;174(4):556–7. Available from: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-0449 https://doi.org/10.7326/M21-0449

[7] Schweiz Bundesamt für Gesundheitswesen. Bulletin des Eidgenössischen Gesundheitsamtes, 1920-1979. Bern: Hallwag;

[8] Vuilleumier C, Kaiser L. Les pandémies à travers les âges. Le cas suisse. Lausanne; 2020.

[9] Greenhalgh T, Jimenez JL, Prather KA, Tufekci Z, Fisman D, Schooley R. Ten scientific reasons in support of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 [Internet]. Lancet. 2021 May;397(10285):1603–5. Available from: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140673621008692 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00869-2

[10] Pica N, Bouvier NM. Ambient temperature and respiratory virus infection [Internet]. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2014 Mar;33(3):311–3. Available from: https://journals.lww.com/00006454-201403000-00024 https://doi.org/10.1097/INF.0000000000000235

[11] Ansart S, Pelat C, Boelle PY, Carrat F, Flahault A, Valleron AJ. Mortality burden of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Europe. Influenza Other Respi Viruses [Internet]. 2009 May;3(3):99–106. Available from: http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2009.00080.x

[12] Bogaert K. Cross protection between the first and second waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic among soldiers of the Canadian Expeditionary Force (CEF) in Ontario [Internet]. Vaccine. 2015 Dec;33(51):7232–8. [cited 2020 Apr 16] Available from: https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0264410X15015765 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.10.120

[13] Patrono LV, Vrancken B, Budt M, Düx A, Lequime S, Boral S, et al. Archival influenza virus genomes from Europe reveal genomic and phenotypic variability during the 1918 pandemic. bioRxiv [Internet]. 2021 Jan 1;2021.05.14.444134. Available from: http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2021/05/14/2021.05.14.444134.abstract

[14] Weinberger DM, Krause TG, Mølbak K, Cliff A, Briem H, Viboud C, et al. Influenza epidemics in Iceland over 9 decades: changes in timing and synchrony with the United States and Europe [Internet]. Am J Epidemiol. 2012 Oct;176(7):649–55. Available from: https://academic.oup.com/aje/article-lookup/doi/10.1093/aje/kws140 https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kws140

[15] Schmid F. Die Influenza in Der Schweiz in den Jahren 1889-1894. Francke, editor. Bern; 1895.

[16] Paccaud MF, Poncioni B. [1957 Influenza pandemic & other viral respiratory diseases in Geneva, Switzerland]. Bull World Health Organ. 1959;20(2-3):498–504. Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/13651930

[17] Sahli H. Ueber die Grippe : Vortrag gehalten am 15. März 1919 in der bernischen naturforschenden Gesellschaft. Bern: Druck und Verlag von K.J. Wyss; 1919.